A Spring Statement of restraint, with reform waiting in the wings

They said it was a non-event, and at first glance, they weren’t wrong.

However, buried beneath the political point-scoring and predictable rhetoric were a few policy nuggets with long-term implications. The Spring Statement may not have raised any new taxes officially, but the writing’s very much on the wall.

Take ISAs. A single line in a 44-page document referencing potential “reform” might sound harmless, but the Chancellor’s Treasury-speak suggests that limits on cash ISAs could be reduced.

It’s being sold as a way to “support the growth mission” and encourage savers into equities, but in practice, it could be another stealth revenue raiser.

Multiply modest tax-free interest savings across millions, and suddenly you’re talking billions lost to the Exchequer, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to rein it in.

Speaking of reining it in, the health element of Universal Credit is set to be slashed from April 2026 to £50 per week for new claimants and frozen until 2030.

While not mentioned in the Chancellor’s statement, the personal independence payment (PIP) assessment regime will also face reform, with projected savings of £4.5 billion over the life of this Parliament.

At the same time, there’s an announcement of more NHS appointments and the usual vague pledges to "modernise the state".

To help pay for it all? A £3.25 billion “transformation fund” designed to “reduce the size of Government” through digitalisation.

Grand ambitions, but we have heard this song before. In my 30 years in this profession, every Chancellor has promised something similar. If it were true, we’d have abolished Income Tax by now!

While we are on the topic of repeating promises, we got the ever-reliable mention of a crackdown on “tax defaulters” and talk of tweaks to interest and penalties, projecting savings of £6.5 billion per year by the end of the decade.

Again, this seems to be a familiar tune. We’ll believe it when we see it.

There were some more tangible measures. Defence spending is to rise by £2.2 billion next year, on top of previously announced increased funding. A commendable move in principle, especially if it stimulates high-skilled, high-wage jobs, which in turn boosts tax receipts.

But one has to wonder whether the average Universal Credit claimant will find solace in the UK’s new defence ambitions as their health support is quietly hollowed out.

Planning reform was another big ticket, with it projected to increase GDP by 0.2 per cent by 2029-30 and 0.4 per cent over 10 years, with promises of £15 billion a year in extra GDP.

In my view, these are fantasy figures unless someone can answer the obvious question: who is going to build all these houses? The skills gap in construction remains, despite some modest support announced for training and yet the Government seems to plough ahead as if the labour market is fully equipped.

One welcome nod was to enterprise. The Government is looking at tax-advantaged share schemes and venture capital incentives, ostensibly to support startups and growth. However, this sounds less like improvement and more like a prelude to restriction. A consultation is coming. Make of that what you will.

Meanwhile, the Making Tax Digital (MTD) saga continues. From April 2028, anyone earning over £20,000 from self-employment or rental income will have to submit quarterly updates to HMRC. Additionally, anyone currently using the scheme will face stiffer penalties for late payments as of this April. More admin, more confusion, more penalties, all for relatively small operators. It's not clear how this will raise revenue unless, cynically, it’s through compliance failures.

So no, this wasn’t a Statement that raised taxes, but it sets the scene for plenty of revenue grabs to come. The Chancellor stood up and said it wasn’t a tax-raising statement, which is, of course, technically true. But if you read between the lines, the tax increases have just been delayed.

Dominic Bourquin